Remember: Doomsayers free ride; all others provide data

Remember:  Anyone blogging, on the radio, or TV that is predicting disaster is allowed 100% of their air time to spew their gloom and doom.  However, when ever someone predicts that things are better than they seem, all of their air time is consumed with demands for proof and endless debate by the host.

Short sellers are legally allowed to say anything they want about a company and it doesn't have to be true.  CEO's are muted by laws that do not allow them to make forward looking statements. 

People are more likely to believe that things are worse than they are.

But, eventually the shorts get squeezed because the global economic engine is alive and well.  Our current problems are not economic.  They are political and they are monetary.   It is Politicians and Bankers who created the problems and because they control laws and money they can never be held to account for their impact on common people.

When the turnaround comes, and it will, the same politicians and bankers will be standing in line to accept the credit.

Since the creation of the markets, it has been a macro "bull run".  The general trend has always been up. 

The future is very bright but I have no data to defend my position.  Even if I did, would you believe it?

Relocation Services

Dear Readers:
I wrote this piece over two years ago but I was advised not post it because it would be too upsetting.  But now since we are well past our Financial and Political instability problems around the world, I can post this and continue to fulfill the TEDBITS mission of insight and entertainment for the Hi-Q.
Sincerely,
Tedbits


There was a lot of unrest because of what was happening. Confidence was lost. The system was collapsing. Those with much to lose- lost a lot. Those with little- lost everything. The politicians couldn't find any new people to blame. The people ran out of patience.


It started in the cities. We watched it on the news. But eventually it spread.

The police, whose job it is “to protect and to serve”, could do neither. There was too many of us to protect against so many. Police officers also had their own families. No one blamed them.  Many of them were lost at the hands of those with nothing to lose.

It had been so long since we worked together as a community that the task of coming together was overwhelming. We lost the ability to organize and effectively structure for the common good. There was no basis upon which to make decisions or agree on plans.

One day, the military arrived at the top of our street. A soldier knocked on our door, who looked exactly like the proud military hero of our dreams. He was young, strong and confident. He spoke well. We felt comforted.

He was unarmed and clearly no threat. Telling us that there was no possibility for the government to protect us in our homes, he handed us a brochure that gave us information about where we would be relocated and what we should bring. It even included luggage tags that we were to affix to travel luggage, one bag per person, to be left by our front door to be picked up later by the quartermaster corps.

The letter said that we were free to “stay in our homes” rather than participate in the relocation. It also warned that there was no guarantee that there would be a second chance as the situation was fluid with matters worsening by the hour.

Our decision had to be our own. All communications, phone-internet-cable, had been down for weeks. The electrical power was unreliable and had been totally out since this morning.  We would listen to the radio in our car for news but didn't dare drive anywhere- it was getting too dangerous. We were on our own.

In 2 hours, buses would be available at the main intersection near our house. We had that amount of time to make our decision, pack, tag, leave our bags at the front door and get to the buses.

So we did, never to return. They lost our luggage. But we don’t need it anymore.

Hedging for the common man

Last year at this time, I posted a well proven technique for making money from what is called the "carry trade".  I showed you a method whereby you can do what the big banks do and returns are nearly 100% guaranteed.  You can refresh you memory here.

That was Carry Trade for the Common Man and now it is time for Hedging for the Common Man...

Fanfare please...[click]

It is simple:  When gas prices are rising buy XOM or DBO.  When food prices are rising buy food companies that can pass on price increases to consumers.  After a nice run up, cash out.  Here is the math:
BASE PRICES + (PRICE INCREASE - YOUR TRADING PROFITS) >= ZERO you win.

I have decided to buy my first iMAC computer.  With the recent two day collapse of the market, I was finally able to buy a few shares of Apple Computer at a reasonable price.  Apple is an unstoppable stock right now relative to the total market, so when AAPL resumes its run, I will cash out and have myself a free computer.

This is why people who spend their life watching American Idol, the Kardshians, Glee, etc. are getting poorer.  But they are happy in their ignorance so I am happy for them-- after all life is short so might as well turn on the TV.

Back in the Saddle

Haven't posted since April but I have been really busy working on dual citizenship for my family and moving my soft assets into hard assets geographically removed from where I live today.  I am sure you are doing the same thing so you know how time consuming this is.

Anyway, I decided to start posting again because everyone has been emailing with questions and discussion points and it is too hard to have a conversation over email.  So, mostly I hear from US citizens who are deeply concerned about their personal situation as America continues to have debt, currency and related economic problems. 

Here is why you should not worry:

(1) All fiat currencies return to their original value-- zero. So will the US dollar. The US has had several currency collapses in its short history. In fact the Federal Reserve Note (the dollar) is not even 100 years old yet. Currencies have collapsed around the world in many countries throughout time. My point is, currency collapse is manageable if it is carefully engineered. What you are really seeing is the careful, thoughtful management of a collapse. If it is handled correctly, the currency will be replaced with something else. 

PROOF:  The value of Iceland's currency in 2009 was zero. However, Icelander's continued to buy and sell to each other using Icelandic currency. Why? Because a Kroner was still worth a Kroner to Iceland... it is just that no other country wanted them.

(2) When the US dollar is worth zero we will still buy goods and services from each other in the US using dollars. But what if no one else in the world will accept dollars? We can't import anything because no one will accept our money!!! Really? Think about this...

(2A) If we can't import anything does that mean we can't export anything? If so, how will the world feed itself since one of the largest US exports is food. To a hungry world food is more important than money. So don't worry about the dollar because we export food.

(2B)  If we can't import anything does that mean we can't buy the 20million barrels of oil we consume every day? We don't have to. The US is energy self sufficient and natural gas, coal and petroleum reserves within the continental US and Alaska will last 300 years. So don't worry about the dollar.

(2C) There is always pain in transition so yes, cities will burn, people will be killed, periods of martial law may be required and aspects of the US constitution will be suspended. These are all temporary. The US military will come home to patrol the streets, order will be restored and we will rebuild. The feeling of unity and togetherness normally experienced during a common disaster will fill our hearts and we will be Americans again.

(3) But what about the massive US debt burden? Who cares. We were never going to pay it off anyway. We took exports from other countries and gave them little green pieces of paper in return. You tell me who was smarter. And what can they do? Bomb us? I don't think so.

(4) When will all this happen? Most likely very far out into the future. Too many people in powerful positions (government and non-government) have a vested interest in the status quo. The currency crisis and, its impact on the economy and wealth, started more than 30 years ago. Our darkest hours were between 1978 and 1982 but no body knew it because of the lack of mass communication and poor education levels to understand the message and its implications.

SOME HISTORY: In the early 1980's, people vested in the status quo managed the collapse. US unemployment was higher then. US interest rates were horrible. And the public was faced everyday with the prospects of mutually assured destruction from the USSR. But somehow we survived and somehow, some of us, improved ourselves and our situation. US banks were overexposed to South American currency collapse and hyperinflation. We were so close to the edge of Armageddon. But we didn't know it, so it didn't bother us.

REALITY:  Today we are more aware. 24 hour news coverage for what is less then 15 minutes of news. We are victims of "speculative factualization". So you worry more. You are also older and you feel more vulnerable.

BOTTOM LINE: But if you accept the above, the future is very bright. I am a buyer and if I am wrong what difference will it make? But if I am right....

"When there is blood in the streets be a buyer even if that blood is your own".... Rothschild circa 18th century.

"Gamblers understand what Winners don't know". Ann Wilson circa 1980's