Listen for the Lie

A really smart person reminded me the other day to "Listen for the Lie". He explained that the "the lie" is really the intentional ommission of an important fact or something that really can't be said openly.

Sensing that I understood his point but really didn't take him seriously or at least appear thoughtful about his profound impartation, he asked me, "What is the largest greenhouse gas on earth"? I quickly replied "CO2". To which he said, "Do some research, find the lie".

So I did and quite easily at both the US Government Environmental Information Site, EPA websites and FEDSTATS, you can see that the largest and most dangerous greenhouse gas from a global warming perspective is water vapor. However, since water vapor is not man made the graphs conveniently leave this data out of their analysis.

You can see that if you eliminate Water Vapor from the chart on the left, the CO2 column will become absolutely huge. That is why everyone is so careful to say "MAN MADE GLOBAL WARMING" so you can eliminate any discussion of water vapor.



Here are two quotes from the EPA Study entitled: "GREENHOUSE GASES AND GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL VALUES"

Greenhouse Gases
Although the Earth’s atmosphere consists mainly of oxygen and nitrogen, neither plays a significant role in enhancing the greenhouse effect because both are essentially transparent to terrestrial radiation. The greenhouse effect is primarily a function of the concentration of water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other trace gases in the atmosphere that absorb the terrestrial radiation leaving the surface of the Earth.

Water Vapor (H2O)
Overall, the most abundant and dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is water vapor. Water vapor is neither long-lived nor well mixed in the atmosphere. In addition, atmospheric water can exist in several physical states including gaseous, liquid, and solid. Human activities are not believed to directly affect the average global concentration of water vapor.



Kind of interesting, isn't it?

Mad Money

As of today, I don't own any gold. My sell point was $950/oz and I cashed out with an 18% gain since early December. The IMF will begin dumping gold on the market to prop up the large number of countries that are approaching insolvency, this will be a time to consider buying back in.

So what next? I still like metals but this time it is copper, zinc and aluminum. The fiscal stimulus implemented by China in the fall of 2008 was 15% of their annual GDP and it was focused on real stimulus. In addition, their unelected government officials, are using their oversurplus of US dollars to extend social benefits to their population to keep the people happy and them in power. This is leading to less contingency saving by the population and thus spuring local consumption. They don't need nor can they wait for the US consumer to recover.

Kind of ironic that China is using its currency surplus from the trade imbalance with the US to pay for universal healthcare for Chinese citizens. Universal healthcare in the US will be paid for by printing more US dollars which will eventually result in currency devaluation.

Now if you think this all makes sense, then I suggest you do some research on the following:

DBB for basic metals
UDN to short the US dollar
and any reputable ETF that is a proxy for the Chinese economy.

I want my share(s)

My tax dollars recapitalized the banks and I want my shares now. The bailout mechanism created preferred shares (as opposed to common shares) and I would like my shares delivered to my brokerage account, now. BTW- If you don't pay taxes, you don't get any shares.

Government "leaders" say the US tax payer will make money on the bailout. Great! How? When do I get my check? I should be getting an apportioned share of the dividends payable on my preferred shares.

Some Simple Math

My dear Hi Q readers, thank god you and I and perhaps more importantly our leaders in Washington have full understanding of CDOs, CDSs, TALFs, TARPs, etc. With all the discussion of a "bad bank", you can feel comforted that they understand the difference between Real Assets (managed under RTC) vesus derivatives. Here's some data.

There's Some Chance...

I lost a friend and I can't tell you his name or show you his picture. His final instructions were very clear: "that there should be no announcement or publicity of my passing".

He was WWII veteran of the US Navy; a Coxswain on a destroyer. He defended the fleets that laid down bombardments on South Pacific islands before my own father, a US Marine, stormed those beaches. There’s some chance that I am here today, because he was there then.

In high school, I remember him as a staunch supporter of women in sports. He was a booster long before Title IX legislation- long before it was “fashionable”. Now I have two daughters who play sports and there's some chance that the work he did then is benefitting them now.

He was active in Church and not just his church. If a church was open and filled with people, he was there adding his voice in song and praise. He prayed at weddings and funerals for people he knew and even those he didn’t. There’s some chance that the religious anchors my own children hold dear are due to his example.

He was a teacher whose classroom was the world. He learned from life’s experiences and passed those learnings on in clever, subtle ways. Seldom did you know you were being taught. And there's some chance, that the number of people he educated can never be known because they themselves learned without knowing.

Consenting to give his daughter’s hand in marriage, he became my second father. I pray that there's some chance his daughter sees in me what she saw in him.

What in the world is going on in New Hampshire?

HCR 6 2009: http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/legislation/2009/HCR0006.html [Full Text]

"That any Act by the Congress of the United States, Executive Order of the President of the United States of America or Judicial Order by the Judicatories of the United States of America which assumes a power not delegated to the government of United States of America by the Constitution for the United States of America and which serves to diminish the liberty of the any of the several States or their citizens shall constitute a nullification of the Constitution for the United States of America by the government of the United States of America. Acts which would cause such a nullification include, but are not limited to..."

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On a separate note, California (the 8th largest economy in the world) has their credit rating downgraded to A-/Stable. Get your checkbook ready because we cannot let a State in Union go bankrupt. No state in the union has ever filed for bankruptcy.

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