Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Mad Money

As of today, I don't own any gold. My sell point was $950/oz and I cashed out with an 18% gain since early December. The IMF will begin dumping gold on the market to prop up the large number of countries that are approaching insolvency, this will be a time to consider buying back in.

So what next? I still like metals but this time it is copper, zinc and aluminum. The fiscal stimulus implemented by China in the fall of 2008 was 15% of their annual GDP and it was focused on real stimulus. In addition, their unelected government officials, are using their oversurplus of US dollars to extend social benefits to their population to keep the people happy and them in power. This is leading to less contingency saving by the population and thus spuring local consumption. They don't need nor can they wait for the US consumer to recover.

Kind of ironic that China is using its currency surplus from the trade imbalance with the US to pay for universal healthcare for Chinese citizens. Universal healthcare in the US will be paid for by printing more US dollars which will eventually result in currency devaluation.

Now if you think this all makes sense, then I suggest you do some research on the following:

DBB for basic metals
UDN to short the US dollar
and any reputable ETF that is a proxy for the Chinese economy.

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