Wednesday, April 20, 2011

TILT

The data is in.  2010 Government payments to citizens in the form social security, medicare, medicaid, unemployment benefits and stimulus programs that paid money directly to citizens totaled $2.3 Trillion.

Tax receipts for 2010 totaled $2.2 Trillion.

That means all the rest of the money the US Government needed to spend to keep things operating and pay the interst on all the previous years of borrowing needed to be borrowed.

The US Government is effectively borrowing money to pay the interest on its debt.

The US Government is borrowing money just to operate.

Now for your investment question of the day... Should buy 1 ounce of silver or 1 share of JPMorgan?  They both cost the same in US Dollars.

A weakening dollar (because the only one really lending to the US is the US Central Bank) is causing oil prices to creep up because oil is traded in US Dollars so it takes more dollars to buy a barrel of oil.

This pushes commodity prices up so those companies with pricing power to pass along increase costs (preferably before their cost actually go up) will do well until the double dip.  

Some say the US is exporting inflation by devaluing the US Dollar causing food, fuel and essential needs to increase in price around the world.   This is not true.  Inflation is ocurring around the world because these countries peg their currency to the dollar.  So, as the dollar goes, so does their currency.  If they let their currency float they wouldn't have this problem.   But they won't change because if their currency becomes stronger then their exports would slow double dipping their economics.

So we are in a deadly embrace.  Snakes emeshed in each other's death grip.

This has happened many times before and eventually things right themselves.  But in the mean time, the investments that worked for you 10 years ago probably won't work now nor in the next few years.

1 comment: